- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.45-34.475 this morning supportive level at 34.30 resistance level at 34.60
- SET Index: 1,340.6 (-0.89%), 17 Jan 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 5,996.7 (+0.99%), 17 Jan 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.409 (-0.82 bps), 17 Jan 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.61 (+0.0 bps), 17 Jan 2025
- Trump and Xi discuss trade and TikTok before inauguration
- US industrial output beats forecasts as manufacturing stabilizes
- UK retail sales drop sparks growth concerns
- China hits 5% GDP target, but Trump tariffs pose growth risks
- IMF boosts global growth forecast due to stronger US demand
- The US dollar was volatile on Friday ahead of Trump's inauguration
Trump and Xi discuss trade and TikTok before inauguration
US President-elect Trump and Chinese President Xi discussed trade, TikTok, and fentanyl in a pre-inauguration call, which could influence future relations between the two countries. Trump described the call as very good for both China and the USA and committed to collaborating with Xi to make the world more peaceful and safe.
US industrial output beats forecasts as manufacturing stabilizes
US industrial production rose 0.9% in December, exceeding forecasts, driven by a pickup in factory output signaling manufacturing stabilization. Manufacturing output grew 0.6%, boosted by the end of a Boeing strike. Excluding auto production, factory output rose 0.7%. Mining increased 1.8%, and utilities output rose 2.1% due to higher natural gas extraction.
UK retail sales drop sparks growth concerns
UK retail sales unexpectedly declined in December, signaling continued challenges for consumer spending ahead of next month’s Bank of England meeting. Sales fell by 0.3%, reversing a revised 0.1% gain in November. Economists had forecasted a 0.4% increase. On an annual basis, retail sales grew by 3.6%, below the expected 4.2%, following no growth in November.
China hits 5% GDP target, but Trump tariffs pose growth risks
China's economy grew more than expected last year, driven by a late policy push and export boom. GDP rose 5.4% in Q4, bringing full-year growth to 5%. However, consumption lagged pre-pandemic levels, property investment fell sharply, and deflation persisted. Risks remain as President Xi may reduce stimulus amid looming tariffs.
IMF boosts global growth forecast due to stronger US demand
The IMF raised its global growth forecast for 2025 to 3.3%, up 0.1 percentage point from October, citing stronger US demand and slowing inflation. The US saw the biggest upgrade, with GDP growth projected at 2.7%. However, global growth is tempered by weaker prospects elsewhere, with the US outperforming the euro area and China. Meanwhile, risks to growth remain tilted to the downside.
The US dollar was volatile on Friday ahead of Trump's inauguration
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.409, -0.82 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.395, -1.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.61, +0.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.46, moving in a range of 34.45 – 34.475 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.30 – 34.60 today. The dollar regained momentum ahead of President-elect Trump's inauguration after four days of losses, though it saw volatility during the day. Trump’s positive remarks about his call with China’s Chairman Xi and trade balancing briefly trimmed gains. EUR and CNH strength weighed on the dollar index, but broad dollar strength resumed, with the index peaking at 109.40. Strong US data supported the dollar's rise. G10 currencies fell as the dollar strengthened, with the yen underperforming despite expectations of a BoJ rate hike. The British pound dropped to 1.2162, its third consecutive week of losses, weighed down by weak retail sales data.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
